Here we go again, alcohol/bleach hording.

[70 sublime]

We went to the movie theater tonight ( Saturday)
Had a private showing for a 9:40 movie start  as we were the only ones there

Works for me and the wife
No one sits in front of her and we can not catch any germs if no one else shows up 

[Mike DC]

          

"H1N1" 1918 Influenza was the first true pandemic, back then if you caught it you were dead in 48 hours if your body couldn't defend.

1918 was bad, but it didn't have anything on the 1340s Bubonic plague.  We still don't really understand that one.  It seemed to have super powers like no other infectious disease ever has.           

[Mytur Binsdirti]

   

The entire world has not spent 2 months all worked up about this virus just to spite Donald Trump.  


This is an actual problem.  They do happen sometimes.  

No argument that this stuff happens every once in a while. The swine flu 11 years ago was an actual problem but the was no panic or shutting down of this country back then.

Why is that & what was different in 2009 versus 2020?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States

[Mike DC]

               
Okay, I consulted Mr. Google for a few minutes and did some calculating:

---------------------------

The Swine flu had a fatality rate of 0.02%.  
It infected 59 million Americans (19% of the country in 2009) and 12,000 died.  

South Korea took this Coronavirus threat seriously 2 months ago.  They've tested 250,000 people and found 8100 cases  <--- this means their data about the virus's death rate might actually be somewhere near the truth.   They've seen a death rate of 0.84% so far.


19% of the current US population = 63 million people.  
63 million x 0.84% death rate  = 529,000 people dead this time.  

To put that in perspective, the total Americans killed in WW2 (Europe and Pacific) + Korea + Vietnam + Iraq + Afghanistan = about 520,000.

---------------------------


And the 19% infection rate could be low for this new virus.  Too early to tell.  

The 1957 flu rate was estimated at 25% (in the USA).  That works out to 696,000 deaths this time.  

The experts (not Democrats and CNN anchors) are talking about a worst-case scenario of 50% infection rate.  IMO that is pretty unlikely but it's not off the table.  And it certainly couldn't have been ruled out yet 2-3 months ago, when our leaders should have been starting to act.  A 50% infection rate x 0.84% death rate = 1.4 million Americans dead.  (Perspective: there were 1.4 million Americans working at Walmart in 2013.)

---------------------------        
       

What will the real death rate be?  I don't know.  Maybe way less than any of these numbers.  

But still.  Known data + common sense + simple calculations = fucking terrifying estimates.

[odcics2]

          

"H1N1" 1918 Influenza was the first true pandemic, back then if you caught it you were dead in 48 hours if your body couldn't defend.

1918 was bad, but it didn't have anything on the 1340s Bubonic plague.  We still don't really understand that one.  It seemed to have super powers like no other infectious disease ever has.           

There are death pits in England where that virus is STILL ACTIVE.     

[BLK 68 R/T]

The bubonic plague was not a viral infection, it is a bacterial one. Still around today, and treatable with antibiotics.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

               
Okay, I consulted Mr. Google for a few minutes and did some calculating:

---------------------------

The Swine flu had a fatality rate of 0.02%.  
It infected 59 million Americans (19% of the country in 2009) and 12,000 died.  

South Korea took this Coronavirus threat seriously 2 months ago.  They've tested 250,000 people and found 8100 cases  <--- this means their data about the virus's death rate might actually be somewhere near the truth.   They've seen a death rate of 0.84% so far.


19% of the current US population = 63 million people.  
63 million x 0.84% death rate  = 529,000 people dead this time.  

To put that in perspective, the total Americans killed in WW2 (Europe and Pacific) + Korea + Vietnam + Iraq + Afghanistan = about 520,000.

---------------------------


And the 19% infection rate could be low for this new virus.  Too early to tell.  

The 1957 flu rate was estimated at 25% (in the USA).  That works out to 696,000 deaths this time.  

The experts (not Democrats and CNN anchors) are talking about a worst-case scenario of 50% infection rate.  IMO that is pretty unlikely but it's not off the table.  And it certainly couldn't have been ruled out yet 2-3 months ago, when our leaders should have been starting to act.  A 50% infection rate x 0.84% death rate = 1.4 million Americans dead.  (Perspective: there were 1.4 million Americans working at Walmart in 2013.)

---------------------------        
       

What will the real death rate be?  I don't know.  Maybe way less than any of these numbers.  

But still.  Known data + common sense + simple calculations = fucking terrifying estimates.

What we are dealing with is a strain of the flu, not the Andromeda Strain. Sadly, some people will die from this just as they do the flu, but some may just have a runny nose and sore throat, although the experts do say that thisappears to be more easily transmittable. . I heard one of the Presidential candidates this week saying that there could be the same casualty rates here as the US lost in WWII, which to me is VERY irresponsible.

We can all point fingers as to who to blame, but we are at where we are at now & have to deal with it. The next 2-4 weeks will be the proof of whether this is serious or all hype.

My oldest son is getting married in 3 weeks & my wife & I are scheduled for a Hawaiian cruise in June. Hopefully neither will get cancelled, but if they do, they do. At this point, we are being cautious, but we are not panicking.....unlike my sister who is nearly hysterical.

[b5blue]

  Right we are all gonna get it sooner or later. Just got back from the store, they had boxes of Kleenex 4 for 5.00 so I put 4 in the cart. At checkout the lady tells me I can only buy 2 so I suggest they put a note with the sale sign. I was rebuked and told that can't be done. Employees are stressing out from all the panic buying, shoppers are getting that "hurricane is coming" look in their eyes. The toilet paper thing has gotten me, do you hug rolls to calm yourself down? 
  I installed a Bidet on each toilet end of last year and they work quite well. My T.P. use has reduced 98% and am fresh as a daisy.   
   

[Kern Dog]

   My T.P. use has reduced 98% and am fresh as a daisy.   
   

Please, NO pictures....

[Mike DC]

I heard one of the Presidential candidates this week saying that there could be the same casualty rates here as the US lost in WWII, which to me is VERY irresponsible.

Do you think this virus could possibly kill 0.29% of America?  Three tenths of one percent of us?  One in every 335 people?  

That's all it would take to equal the WW2 death rate.   WW2 killed 418,000 out of 140 million Americans at the time.  

We can all point fingers as to who to blame, but we are at where we are at now & have to deal with it. The next 2-4 weeks will be the proof of whether this is serious or all hype.

My oldest son is getting married in 3 weeks & my wife & I are scheduled for a Hawaiian cruise in June. Hopefully neither will get cancelled, but if they do, they do. At this point, we are being cautious, but we are not panicking.....unlike my sister who is nearly hysterical.

I agree that it may be overhyped and it may not be as dangerous as we're hearing.  These diseases usually turn out to be milder than the initial reports.  

But this C19 virus is definitely worse than usual and we don't know enough yet.  "Milder than the initial reports" isn't much consolation when the initial reports are so scary.  

Wanna talk about fear-mongering?  If you take the worse reported fatality rate of 3.4%, multiplied by the worst-case scenario infection rate of 50% . . . you get 5.6 million US deaths.  (No, I don't think that will happen, either.  But my point is that the estimates in the 500k range are not the wild high guesses, they are the serious ones.)  


IMO we will know more in 2 weeks but we still won't know a lot yet.  This thing plays out over a span of months.  And so far our only tool against it is to delay the outbreak's growth.  Until we get a vaccine, all these testing & quarantine efforts are mainly buying time.      

[Kern Dog]

I got a work text this morning. No work today because of R A I N. Wooooo!
If hospitals are turning away NON Covid cases, it makes a man wonder how many other risks we might wish to avoid taking. Imagine any activity that might result in an injury that NOW you might not be able to get medical care. What if you fall off of a bike and break an arm? How about sex with a stranger that could result in "the drip" ? Fist fights, working up on a ladder, operating power tools, etc.
This shit can make a worrier out of a normally secure person.
What about looking to other sources for medical care for emergency type injuries? Dentists, Veterinarians, Ambulance operators, Chiropractors, etc ?

[Mike DC]

              
There's a disease expert who did a TEDx talk about the Coronavirus a few days ago.  

She said it's too early to discuss the death rate.  But it's pretty clear that about 20% of the infected people will need hospital care.  America is just barely capable of handling that.

Her advice was basically "Don't bother wearing a mask.  But do wash your hands a lot.  Mainly during & after you go out in public."  

[Mytur Binsdirti]

For the doom and gloomers here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdf5EXo6I68

[alfaitalia]

Its pretty bad here....town/city centres empty. Hospitals only just coping NOW and we are probably 3 to 4 weeks away from peak infection rate. 55 plus dead....soon to skyrocket. Many businesses closed....some may never reopen Ive had to send home two staff today...one lives with a suspected virus victim...the other has another illness and takes drugs that affect her immune system...her Dr phoned her here as work and said she was to go home and self isolate for 12 WEEKS!!!! I cant think that we will be allowed to stay open much longer.....and we sure cant afford to stay closed. Pretty bad really....much worse and more worrying than I expected. You are where we were a few week back....so it will get worse.....no matter how much you think/hope it wont...I was that person.
Im not worried about getting it....Im 53, fit and heathy ...so should be fine....but I would feel guilty if I pass it to my elderly parents and one of them died....Ok they might not get it from me....but I would never know....phone calls only from now on.

[John_Kunkel]

This shit can make a worrier out of a normally secure person.

[Mytur Binsdirti]

[b5blue]

I've had to improvise antiseptic cleaners that are less costly than rubbing alcohol...

[myk]

[alfaitalia]

I've had to improvise antiseptic cleaners that are less costly than rubbing alcohol...

I love JD...my favourite spirit...not many Brits will say that....and no Scots!!. But it has to be the proper stuff....as for that Fire stuff and that other version with honey in it!!!....WTF.... using it as antibacterial wipe is about all I would use it for. I almost stopped drinking JD when they started making all that "trendy"  flavoured versions!!!....but it would not have been for long!!!

[odcics2]

Interesting way to keep things going.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2020/03/20/uaw-detroit-automakers-parts-depot-gm-fca-ford/2883012001/

[b5blue]

I called ahead and had Publix save me a roasted chicken for dinner and lo and behold they had toilet paper!     I'm now the proud owner of 12 rolls.   

[John_Kunkel]

b5blues's pic reminded me that a while back I was in a surplus store and saw some small spray bottles. Bought a few because they were real cheap but never used them.

Now I filled them with isopropyl alcohol (used for cleaning brake parts) and have them strategically placed in home and car.

[alfaitalia]

In neat form?...that must sting the hands a bit...

[Mytur Binsdirti]

I heard one of the Presidential candidates this week saying that there could be the same casualty rates here as the US lost in WWII, which to me is VERY irresponsible.

Do you think this virus could possibly kill 0.29% of America?  Three tenths of one percent of us?  One in every 335 people?  

That's all it would take to equal the WW2 death rate.   WW2 killed 418,000 out of 140 million Americans at the time.  

We can all point fingers as to who to blame, but we are at where we are at now & have to deal with it. The next 2-4 weeks will be the proof of whether this is serious or all hype.

My oldest son is getting married in 3 weeks & my wife & I are scheduled for a Hawaiian cruise in June. Hopefully neither will get cancelled, but if they do, they do. At this point, we are being cautious, but we are not panicking.....unlike my sister who is nearly hysterical.

I agree that it may be overhyped and it may not be as dangerous as we're hearing.  These diseases usually turn out to be milder than the initial reports.  

But this C19 virus is definitely worse than usual and we don't know enough yet.  "Milder than the initial reports" isn't much consolation when the initial reports are so scary.  

Wanna talk about fear-mongering?  If you take the worse reported fatality rate of 3.4%, multiplied by the worst-case scenario infection rate of 50% . . . you get 5.6 million US deaths.  (No, I don't think that will happen, either.  But my point is that the estimates in the 500k range are not the wild high guesses, they are the serious ones.)  


IMO we will know more in 2 weeks but we still won't know a lot yet.  This thing plays out over a span of months.  And so far our only tool against it is to delay the outbreak's growth.  Until we get a vaccine, all these testing & quarantine efforts are mainly buying time.      

Here's a couple of interesting articles that the major news networks don't want you to know about. They've got to keep the panic going because panic = ratings......


Coronavirus misperceptions widespread in early weeks, according to Stanford study

https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2020/03/23/coronavirus-misperceptions-widespread-in-early-weeks-according-to-stanford-study/


Nobel laureate predicts US will have much faster coronavirus recovery than expected


https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489415-nobel-laureate-predicts-us-will-experience

[b5blue]

Where's the bleach I want to do laundry!