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Looks like I was right

Started by Mytur Binsdirti, April 25, 2020, 03:49:31 AM

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mel t

Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 25, 2020, 03:37:17 PM
Quote from: odcics2 on April 25, 2020, 02:57:44 PM

After reading a TON of material, and making a guess....

I think there are about FIVE MILLION cases in the US.  (at least, could be way more... who knows??)

MOST never know they have it. Then, MOST that get it, have mild symptom - no hospital required, hell, not even tested for it!

THEN we get to what's out there on the daily counts.....  Case totals and how many died from the last tally.  




It would be interesting to test everyone for the flu & see how many are carriers and who had it unknowingly. Of course it won't be done, but I'd bet the numbers would be staggering.


And yet, the top 10 leading causes of death in the US never get talked about.

https://www.mdlinx.com/internal-medicine/article/6280


I'm not downplaying the Kung Flu, I'm just putting it in perspective.
:2thumbs:

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: alfaitalia on April 25, 2020, 06:06:29 PM
Does it really matter who was right?..53000 dead American citizens (and still climbing fast...over 3000 in the last 24 hours with still a way to go) is still a tragedy....they were all someone's father, mother, son, daughter....etc etc.


Apply what you say above to drug overdoses.....

"In 2017, more than 70,000 people died from drug overdoses, making it a leading cause of injury-related death in the United States. Sixty-eight percent of those deaths involved a prescription or illicit opioid. On average, 130 Americans die every day from an opioid overdose."


And car accidents......

"Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled. More than half of all ​road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44."


And murders.....

"There were approximately 17,000 murders in the USA in 2017 according to FBI statistics. That works out to about 46 per day out of a total population of 330 million. So any one person's chance of being murdered each day is about 1 in 7 million, in a year about 1 in 20,000. As a reference, the chance of being struck by lighting is 1 in 300,000. The overall murder rate in the USA per 100,000 population was 5.3 in 2016 down 48% from its rate of 10 in 1980."


Let's look at how many people, on average, die every day in the US (prior to the Kung Flu)....

"In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. January, February, and December were the months with the highest average daily number of deaths (8,478, 8,351, and 8,344, respectively). June, July, and August were the months with the lowest average daily number of deaths (7,298, 7,157, and 7,158, respectively)."


Again, my whole point has about this, as stated in post #11, has always been about perspective versus hysteria....


Lastly, it can also be argued that because (most) everyone is in lockdown instead of going about there daily lives, more lives are being saved than lost because of the Kung Flu.....


IS THE CORONAVIRUS SAVING LIVES?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/is-the-coronavirus-saving-lives.php



Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: Mike DC (formerly miked) on April 25, 2020, 09:00:42 PM
     
The ruling class/big corps are facing two options.  They can either start giving the public some survival money, or reopen the economy and let more people die. 

We all know which one they will choose. 
   


The government is handing out trillions of dollars which leads one to ask; how much do you believe big corporations and government owes you?    :shruggy:

XH29N0G

Some of you are trying to stir things up again with agenda-driven views.

COVID looks to be one of the most important things that has faced the world.  We should follow the best information possible, not the fake news of the OP and the misleading comparisons and information that was just given.

Valid information can be found.  The panel I posted covered some of it.  There are reputable sources.

While some sort of relaxing will be needed to address the economic impacts, it is clear that is not a route that is being driven solely by the medical information.  The most prudent route would solve the issue with a cure and vaccine.  If you listen to what those like Fauci say about relaxing the controls, it is measured and has respect for this virus and what it can do. It also says there is a possibility for doing it wrong.  

We have gotten this far because of the precautions put in place.  And it does look like the 'free' countries have in general been hit harder than those with stricter rules. I also heard in another meeting I was in, that the different responses of different countries and regions have provided scenario information for understanding the disease and its spread and its potential effects. Work is actively being done and there is moving body of 'best' information.

I doubt, even if a group really thought this is nothing, that they would intentionally infect themselves just to prove the point. Or set up a protest without precautions.  I think asking that question puts this situation in perspective.  Yes even those people are taking precautions.  

Shutting down the economy costs billions and billions of dollars a month, and I agree with Mike DC that (not the best medical practices) is what is driving us.  


Who in their right mind would say

"The science should not stand in the way of this."? 

Science is just observation and hypothesis.  Policy stands in the way.........

Or maybe it protects us. 

I suppose it depends on the specific case.....

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: XH29N0G on April 26, 2020, 06:46:29 AM
Some of you are trying to stir things up again with agenda-driven views.

COVID looks to be one of the most important things that has faced the world.  We should follow the best information possible, not the fake news of the OP and the misleading comparisons and information that was just given. Valid information can be found.  The panel I posted covered some of it.  There are reputable sources.

No agenda, just pointing out a point of view that you don't seem to agree with. Please explain what is misleading and fake about what I've posted.


Quote from: XH29N0G on April 26, 2020, 06:46:29 AMThe most prudent route would solve the issue with a cure and vaccine.

Unfortunately, it appears that a vaccine is still a long way off. 


Quote from: XH29N0G on April 26, 2020, 06:46:29 AMIf you listen to what those like Fauci say about relaxing the controls, it is measured and has respect for this virus and what it can do. It also says there is a possibility for doing it wrong.

Dr. Fauci (Dr. Doom) has been wrong since he first started talking about this in January.



 
Quote from: XH29N0G on April 26, 2020, 06:46:29 AMWe have gotten this far because of the precautions put in place.


That could be true, or it could not be true. It'll be quite a while before that can actually be validated. Places where "too many" people still gather are at supermarkets & one would imagine that working in a supermarket could be considered one of the most hazardous jobs out there now. Yet, you don't hear of supermarkets being contaminated and their employees getting sick. I'm sure that some are, but has anyone heard of this happening en masse, even in the heavily infected areas? Yet, some Governors won't allow you to go to the park or paddleboard in the ocean by yourself.






odcics2

Mr. Dirti -

The United States auto numbers are - More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention

I believe the number you mentioned is worldwide???...     :shruggy:

Not sure if you were talking just US numbers for comparison on all the numbers you mentioned.

C-19 claimed over 54K in it's short run so far, in the US.  (numbers climbing daily...)

I've never owned anything but a MoPar. Can you say that?

c00nhunterjoe

You are all doing exactly what is wanted. Bicker amongst both sides of the fence both politically and moraly. Step back and look at the bigger picture for a minute and completely forget politics, and medicine. I speak this as an individual with direct shoot to kill military chemical warfare experience.
  In a VERY brief nutshell, People in china have been eating raw bats for centuries. We are expected to beleive that a virus came from a bat in china and only effected a small amount of people there. It quickly spread worldwide and has mutated several times in humans in that short time. It survives heat and cold. It is airborne and a surface contaminant for days. It has no treatment. It is human medicine resistant. It attacks only the lungs. Governments worldwide are panicking and literally bankrupting their countries to shut down. A country near china was manufacturing high tech test kits for this strain of virus before it was discovered. Wake up people. Wake up.
 

XH29N0G

I'll let others decide which of our approaches are grounded in the soundest available information and what our respective agendas may be. 


Who in their right mind would say

"The science should not stand in the way of this."? 

Science is just observation and hypothesis.  Policy stands in the way.........

Or maybe it protects us. 

I suppose it depends on the specific case.....

Mike DC

Quotehttp://is THE CORONAVIRUS SAVING LIVES?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/is-the-coronavirus-saving-lives.php

IIRC there is normally a lag on processing total deaths of 1-2 months.  The data on March & April isn't complete.    

----------------

QuoteThe government is handing out trillions of dollars which leads one to ask; how much do you believe big corporations and government owes you?    shruggy

Here's a better question:  How much do you think YOU owe the big corps right now?  It's your tax dollars the govt is giving to them.  

They've been making high profits for a decade.   Now they started demanding bailouts as soon as they got shut down for a few weeks.  If they were our next door neighbor or a welfare queen with 6 kids, would we be eager to give them free money right now?  Or would we be crying "Ugh!!  Where is the financial responsibility!?!?"    



What if I said the public is entitled to "anything at all"?  We could start with that.  

The $1200 pittance is merely an advance on next year's tax payments.  They will take it back out then.    

Meanwhile, the corporate bailouts aren't just benign.  They get leveraged by the financial industry into several trillion dollars and the cash gets used against the poor masses.  If you give the top of the corporate state a big wad of free money + depress the economy (read: asset values) at the same time, they will go on a buying/consolidating spree.   Same thing went on during the last economic crash.  

Also, when the economy reaches 100% restored, will they have re-hired 100% of the workers that they shed during the outbreak?  I doubt it.    


alfaitalia

Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 26, 2020, 03:48:38 AM
Quote from: alfaitalia on April 25, 2020, 06:06:29 PM
Does it really matter who was right?..53000 dead American citizens (and still climbing fast...over 3000 in the last 24 hours with still a way to go) is still a tragedy....they were all someone's father, mother, son, daughter....etc etc.


Apply what you say above to drug overdoses.....

"In 2017, more than 70,000 people died from drug overdoses, making it a leading cause of injury-related death in the United States. Sixty-eight percent of those deaths involved a prescription or illicit opioid. On average, 130 Americans die every day from an opioid overdose."


And car accidents......

"Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled. More than half of all ​road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44."


And murders.....

"There were approximately 17,000 murders in the USA in 2017 according to FBI statistics. That works out to about 46 per day out of a total population of 330 million. So any one person's chance of being murdered each day is about 1 in 7 million, in a year about 1 in 20,000. As a reference, the chance of being struck by lighting is 1 in 300,000. The overall murder rate in the USA per 100,000 population was 5.3 in 2016 down 48% from its rate of 10 in 1980."


Let's look at how many people, on average, die every day in the US (prior to the Kung Flu)....

"In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. January, February, and December were the months with the highest average daily number of deaths (8,478, 8,351, and 8,344, respectively). June, July, and August were the months with the lowest average daily number of deaths (7,298, 7,157, and 7,158, respectively)."


Again, my whole point has about this, as stated in post #11, has always been about perspective versus hysteria....


Lastly, it can also be argued that because (most) everyone is in lockdown instead of going about there daily lives, more lives are being saved than lost because of the Kung Flu.....


IS THE CORONAVIRUS SAVING LIVES?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/is-the-coronavirus-saving-lives.php




Logic so flawed it does not warrant the time to reply in full!!! ...but in brief.....So every government the world over (in the affected countries) and every medical group worth its salt, who says lockdown is working,  is wrong and you are right....sounds  reasonable to me. We will have some job losses here (UK)....but no where near as many as most places as our government is putting the cash up to save the companies and paying all the people who have to stay at home (like me) 80% of our wages.......does your government care enough for you guys to do the same? ....or would they rather risk another 60,000 Americans (or whatever it is today) to aid the economy. I know what id rather see. Your lack of respect for human life is worrying really...IMO.
Anyway...this is edging on political....and I dont want to be banned...again. So ill leave you intellectuals to it!!!
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you !!

Mike DC

QuoteYou are all doing exactly what is wanted. Bicker amongst both sides of the fence both politically and moraly. Step back and look at the bigger picture for a minute and completely forget politics, and medicine. I speak this as an individual with direct shoot to kill military chemical warfare experience.
  In a VERY brief nutshell, People in china have been eating raw bats for centuries. We are expected to beleive that a virus came from a bat in china and only effected a small amount of people there. It quickly spread worldwide and has mutated several times in humans in that short time. It survives heat and cold. It is airborne and a surface contaminant for days. It has no treatment. It is human medicine resistant. It attacks only the lungs. Governments worldwide are panicking and literally bankrupting their countries to shut down. A country near china was manufacturing high tech test kits for this strain of virus before it was discovered. Wake up people. Wake up.
 

I sorta have that issue filed under "could use more research".


I don't think it's accurate to say it only infected a small number of people in China.  Their (past) numbers keep getting bigger all the time.  And it appears to have been circulating there in the summer/fall of 2019 (probably a less virulent strain).  

As for attacking only the lungs, AFAIK we don't know enough yet.  It has cardio effects/ties and can cause sudden heart failures in some people.  (Hence the complaints that "People are dying of stuff like heart attacks and they are listing them as a Covid deaths!")  High blood pressure is a big risk factor for it.  

As for the test kits being manufactured before the outbreak - Covid-19 is in a family of known viruses and the China outbreak is now older than previously (admitted).  This virus was known to science before it "broke out".  


It's tempting to think HIV was a govt invention.  The sudden emergence, the unequal susceptibility of white vs black people, the way it coincided with vaccination efforts in Africa, etc.  But in the end they've tracked it down to a pure accident (last I read).  It was a less harmful existing animal disease.  Some human efforts to mass-produce other vaccines using primate methods caused the jump.  Then the sloppy hygiene of the vaccination efforts created a breeding ground to quickly make it mutate into a more dangerous form.  Etc.  The human HIV plague was indeed 'unnatural' but it was not intentional.

 
But like I said, I'm not unwilling to believe this virus was a bio-weapon job.   I'm just reluctant to jump straight to that. 

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: odcics2 on April 26, 2020, 08:35:48 AM
Mr. Dirti -

The United States auto numbers are - More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention

I believe the number you mentioned is worldwide???...     :shruggy:

Not sure if you were talking just US numbers for comparison on all the numbers you mentioned.

C-19 claimed over 54K in it's short run so far.




Your figures are corrent. Mine were world wide. Being that it's now late April & that's the first mistake I made this year, that's not a bad record.    :yesnod:

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: Mike DC (formerly miked) on April 26, 2020, 10:18:34 AM
Quotehttp://is THE CORONAVIRUS SAVING LIVES?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/is-the-coronavirus-saving-lives.php

IIRC there is normally a lag on processing total deaths of 1-2 months.  The data on March & April isn't complete.    

----------------

QuoteThe government is handing out trillions of dollars which leads one to ask; how much do you believe big corporations and government owes you?    shruggy

Here's a better question:  How much do you think YOU owe the big corps right now?  It's your tax dollars the govt is giving to them.  

They've been making high profits for a decade.   Now they started demanding bailouts as soon as they got shut down for a few weeks.  If they were our next door neighbor or a welfare queen with 6 kids, would we be eager to give them free money right now?  Or would we be crying "Ugh!!  Where is the financial responsibility!?!?"    



What if I said the public is entitled to "anything at all"?  We could start with that.  

The $1200 pittance is merely an advance on next year's tax payments.  They will take it back out then.    

Meanwhile, the corporate bailouts aren't just benign.  They get leveraged by the financial industry into several trillion dollars and the cash gets used against the poor masses.  If you give the top of the corporate state a big wad of free money + depress the economy (read: asset values) at the same time, they will go on a buying/consolidating spree.   Same thing went on during the last economic crash.  

Also, when the economy reaches 100% restored, will they have re-hired 100% of the workers that they shed during the outbreak?  I doubt it.    




I think that we can all agree that big business gets more than us little people do. But that's a different topic for a different time. Sounds to me that you've got income envy which has got nothing to do with the Kung Flu. But, since you've gone there, a good part of my income is derided from working for very wealthy people and when I see how much money the ultra wealthy spend on the homes that they live in, I don't bitch and moan about them; rather I say God bless the wealthy. They employ a lot of people & if if all of us can can get a chunk of their money, what's wrong with that?


Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: alfaitalia on April 26, 2020, 10:19:16 AM
Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 26, 2020, 03:48:38 AM
Quote from: alfaitalia on April 25, 2020, 06:06:29 PM
Does it really matter who was right?..53000 dead American citizens (and still climbing fast...over 3000 in the last 24 hours with still a way to go) is still a tragedy....they were all someone's father, mother, son, daughter....etc etc.


Apply what you say above to drug overdoses.....

"In 2017, more than 70,000 people died from drug overdoses, making it a leading cause of injury-related death in the United States. Sixty-eight percent of those deaths involved a prescription or illicit opioid. On average, 130 Americans die every day from an opioid overdose."


And car accidents......

"Nearly 1.25 million people are killed in car accidents each year. That means, on average, auto accidents cause 3,287 deaths per day. An additional 20-50 million people are injured or disabled. More than half of all ​road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44."


And murders.....

"There were approximately 17,000 murders in the USA in 2017 according to FBI statistics. That works out to about 46 per day out of a total population of 330 million. So any one person's chance of being murdered each day is about 1 in 7 million, in a year about 1 in 20,000. As a reference, the chance of being struck by lighting is 1 in 300,000. The overall murder rate in the USA per 100,000 population was 5.3 in 2016 down 48% from its rate of 10 in 1980."


Let's look at how many people, on average, die every day in the US (prior to the Kung Flu)....

"In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. January, February, and December were the months with the highest average daily number of deaths (8,478, 8,351, and 8,344, respectively). June, July, and August were the months with the lowest average daily number of deaths (7,298, 7,157, and 7,158, respectively)."


Again, my whole point has about this, as stated in post #11, has always been about perspective versus hysteria....


Lastly, it can also be argued that because (most) everyone is in lockdown instead of going about there daily lives, more lives are being saved than lost because of the Kung Flu.....


IS THE CORONAVIRUS SAVING LIVES?

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/is-the-coronavirus-saving-lives.php




Logic so flawed it does not warrant the time to reply in full!!! ...but in brief.....So every government the world over (in the affected countries) and every medical group worth its salt, who says lockdown is working,  is wrong and you are right....sounds  reasonable to me. We will have some job losses here (UK)....but no where near as many as most places as our government is putting the cash up to save the companies and paying all the people who have to stay at home (like me) 80% of our wages.......does your government care enough for you guys to do the same? ....or would they rather risk another 60,000 Americans (or whatever it is today) to aid the economy. I know what id rather see. Your lack of respect for human life is worrying really...IMO.
Anyway...this is edging on political....and I dont want to be banned...again. So ill leave you intellectuals to it!!!

I didn't bring government(s) into this conversation, but some of you keep wanting to. 

alfaitalia

Agreed....but is difficult not too......it's their decisions that are costing or saving lives depending on what they decide to do...or not. I was only saying what ours had done...not digging at yours....at least not intentionally.
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you !!

Mike DC

QuoteI think that we can all agree that big business gets more than us little people do. But that's a different topic for a different time. Sounds to me that you've got income envy which has got nothing to do with the Kung Flu. But, since you've gone there, a good part of my income is derided from working for very wealthy people and when I see how much money the ultra wealthy spend on the homes that they live in, I don't bitch and moan about them; rather I say God bless the wealthy. They employ a lot of people & if if all of us can can get a chunk of their money, what's wrong with that?


A lot of people say "I know rich people."  Most of them don't, not the ruling class.   Most people's idea of rich is "a few times as much as I have."  
 

The real ruling class in America today are billionaires.  They make jokes about people who work hard for decades and only have $25 million to show for it.    

MoparMike68

I have yet to see the word charger mentioned in the last couple pages  :lol:

odcics2

Quote from: MoparMike68 on April 26, 2020, 03:11:21 PM
I have yet to see the word charger mentioned in the last couple pages  :lol:

"Charger".

Wouldn't want to disappoint!   :smilielol:
I've never owned anything but a MoPar. Can you say that?

MoparMike68

Quote from: odcics2 on April 26, 2020, 03:53:11 PM
Quote from: MoparMike68 on April 26, 2020, 03:11:21 PM
I have yet to see the word charger mentioned in the last couple pages  :lol:

"Charger".

Wouldn't want to disappoint!   :smilielol:
There it is,that word makes me happy  :icon_smile_big:

John_Kunkel

Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 25, 2020, 12:40:28 PM
Quote from: John_Kunkel on April 25, 2020, 11:55:27 AM
Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 25, 2020, 03:49:31 AM
As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........

According to you and the author of that article. Ever search for an alternate opinion before patting yourself on the back?



Ummm, compared to the MSM, that is an alternative opinion. How about telling us what you think is wrongly stated in that article instead of just crowing about the article itself?

First thing I do when reading a cherry-picked article that supports the poster's agenda is to Google the author of the article. Author of that article leans one way but that way evidently suits you so..................
Pardon me but my karma just ran over your dogma.

Challenger340

I dunno if there is any being 'right or wrong' around COVID predictions ?
all I do know.... is that in less than 2 months
* The USA with 1/24th of the Global population..... has now fully 1/3rd of all Global COVID infections, a disproportionately HIGH rate of infection Vrs anywhere else on the planet ?
* The USA has now 50,000 deaths in a mere 9 weeks ?, far worse than any Flu could ever be in recorded history and still climbing.
* The USA is expected to experience second wave outbreaks as soon as the economy is re-opened ?

I can only hope that I am wrong ?
when I say I think many may be trivializing the COVID reduction effects the lockdowns have had in minimizing the effects thus far ?  

Time will tell as the economy re-opens in the name of their 'freedom' so many feel has been trampled upon ?

Only wimps wear Bowties !

Mike DC

   
QuoteI have yet to see the word charger mentioned in the last couple pages  lol


Maybe we should move this thread to the "Off Topic Discussion" forum.   :scratchchin:

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: Mike DC (formerly miked) on April 26, 2020, 02:16:45 PM
QuoteI think that we can all agree that big business gets more than us little people do. But that's a different topic for a different time. Sounds to me that you've got income envy which has got nothing to do with the Kung Flu. But, since you've gone there, a good part of my income is derided from working for very wealthy people and when I see how much money the ultra wealthy spend on the homes that they live in, I don't bitch and moan about them; rather I say God bless the wealthy. They employ a lot of people & if if all of us can can get a chunk of their money, what's wrong with that?


A lot of people say "I know rich people."  Most of them don't, not the ruling class.   Most people's idea of rich is "a few times as much as I have."  
 

The real ruling class in America today are billionaires.  They make jokes about people who work hard for decades and only have $25 million to show for it.    


What you say has some validity, but this thread is not about that. However, it appears to me that you really are obsessed with class and other people's money.

Mytur Binsdirti

Quote from: John_Kunkel on April 26, 2020, 04:43:09 PM
Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 25, 2020, 12:40:28 PM
Quote from: John_Kunkel on April 25, 2020, 11:55:27 AM
Quote from: Mytur Binsdirti on April 25, 2020, 03:49:31 AM
As I usually am. The Kung Flu was overhyped..........

According to you and the author of that article. Ever search for an alternate opinion before patting yourself on the back?



Ummm, compared to the MSM, that is an alternative opinion. How about telling us what you think is wrongly stated in that article instead of just crowing about the article itself?

First thing I do when reading a cherry-picked article that supports the poster's agenda is to Google the author of the article. Author of that article leans one way but that way evidently suits you so..................


OK, let's have it your way. Why don't you post "a cherry-picked article" that supports your agenda that we are all going to die from this.  ::)

Mytur Binsdirti